Tuesday, February 15, 2011

The Politics of Recession: A Disturbing Parallel from 1929

 In 1929 the worst stock market crash in history crippled the global economy, ruined the livelihood of millions and led to the most politically turbulent shift in global affairs since the fall of the Roman Empire. As many political scientists, historians and economists concede, there is a direct correlation between the stock market crash and the political shift that occurred across the globe throughout the 1930s which culminated in the Second World War. When large parts of the population are unemployed, they have the resources necessary to mobilize, the will to form coalitions and devotion to formally set forth their grievances. Most importantly, during a recession dissents have the luxury of endurance to ensure demands are met.  

In the wake of the stock market crash of 1929, the 1930s were arguably the most turbulent decade in the modern era. Governments across the globe struggled to maintain social stability. The Japanese invaded China, the Italians invaded Ethiopia, the Spanish fought a brutal civil war and of course Hitler came to power in Germany and Stalin secured his grip over the Soviet Union by violent force. The Great Depression was not simply titled as such for the economic consequences. Fed up with capitalism, government bureaucracy and the established order; people across the globe rose up and tried to find a solution to dire economic situations. The economic situation in Germany resulted in what economists term "hyperinflation". 1 Billion Deutsch-marks (thats with a 'b') was barely enough for a loaf of bread. Money was literally worthless.

Every government attempted to secure their regime anyway they could, in most cases the easiest way out was to blame a distant people, propagandize them as "alien" and send in the marines. The goal for too many countries was the same, refocus the domestic public and preoccupy their current affliction while distracting their emotional economic claims.This method of distracting the populous' grievances by scapegoating is as old as politics itself. Couple the 1930s with the First World War and the use of propaganda would never again be relegated to war time use only.

Modern Similarities

Fast forward to the modern era. Every financial analyst, media outlet, and national news anchor referred to the recent recession as "the worst recession since the great depression". The Egyptian revolt is just the beginning. Now revolts are occurring across the Middle East. Iran, Bahrain, Jordan, Tunisia, Yemen are amongst the secondary countries to revolt against established regimes. Most of these countries exist outside of the established global order and contribute a very small percentage to the global economy with exception of Iranian oil. But if history can be used an indicator, the revolts will not end with a few fringe Middle Eastern and African countries.  

European candidates for revolt include but are not limited to: Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Romania and Poland. All riddled with debt, unemployment and fiscal mismanagement; these governments will eventually have to hamper progress and the prospects for growth even further when they necessarily increase taxes in order to balance the books. 

Only World War Two could interrupt the worst financial disaster in recorded history. Many economists believe the global economy may have taken another decade to return to pre-depression levels. Whilst we are currently being told that the contemporary recession is over and that the global economy has finally returned to a measure of growth, the effects of the worst recession since the great depression, have barely begun. 

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