Saturday, February 12, 2011

The Game: Empires in the Current Era


As world leader and overseer of a global empire, America has but one priority- maintain global economic and military dominance. Drawing on lessons from the past, this stage of American empirical evolution should no longer focus on expansion, but rather to limit the exposure and influence of main competitors. Much like an industrial leader in a specific sector, a company will identify possible competitors and react accordingly. A nation, much like a corporate entity can only gain so much market share before it infringes the progress of another. Over the course of the last twenty or thirty years we have seen many of these industrial leaders (Microsoft, Google, Intel, GE, Exxon, etc...) use their dominant market position and industrial might to covertly and pervasively impede the growth of potential competitors. In the event that a competitor manages to build a higher quality product and appears capable of challenging the much larger entity at a future date, the bigger company can simply buy them out, thereby adding the new product to their already mammoth arsenal.
But every now and again a challenger will come out of nowhere (Google), the bigger company will underestimate the challenge posed to them (Microsoft) and become complacent with it's status as industry leader. Be it as a result of technological, industrial, or societal changes that the former has yet to fully incorporate into their operations, the new comer will grow so rapidly that it quickly eliminates the possibility of a takeover. This economic example is by no means limited to the business environment.
As demonstrated with previous empirical powers, there is always a challenger seeking to circumvent the power of the dominant nation. The fringe entity may be forced to combat the hegemon out of desperation, a distinct ideological difference or it could be politically motivated.  This was the case with Huns and the Roman empire, the British and the French in the 18th century, the Germans in the 20th and now add the Chinese challenge to the American empire as the most recent example.
Most experts do not look at the current rise of China as an empirical threat in the classical understanding, however it can be looked upon as nothing less. As the Chinese economy growths larger, it will require more sophisticated and detailed relations in various regions across the globe. These relations will eventually overlap in current American spheres of influence. Eventually the Chinese and American interests will clash, if they have not already done so. Issues of contention could arise over Chinese incursion into hitherto American dominated spheres of influence in energy rich areas of the globe. More significant, many experts believe that the issue of Taiwanese independence has the most potential to sour relations between the two. Echoing the British sentiment of the 1930s over Poland that eventually resulted in World War Two, multiple American administrations have put China on notice and have suggested that any uninvited disruption or intervention in Taiwanese political, economic or cultural life will provoke the United States to take immediate action. This has, at very least, been the historical rhetoric of the United States.
Whether the flash point will be Taiwan, Middle East energy contracts or a futuristic formally unseen point of contention such as the demand for fresh water resources has yet to been seen, but if history can be used as a guide, the flash point will come. At this juncture some observers fast forward to World War Three and doomsday scenarios; nothing could be further from the truth. War is never a decision that is reached lightly, and a war between China and the US could easily be calculated by both sides as a mutually destructive conflict, a war with no winners, persuading each to seek alternative solutions. Much more probable would be a new age cold war, where the actual fighting is done in remote parts of the world, and the nations dual for global ideological supremacy.
Some experts have suggested that as a result of the technological revolution in information processing and transference coupled with the onset of the globalization of trade that such notions of engagement, confrontation or provocation are at best hypothetical theories only. They argue that the economies of China and America are so completely tied to another that the need for each other supremely overrides any animosity. At present this idea indeed holds weight. The Chinese government purchases American Debt, the American debt is used to boost the economy and the US consumer purchases goods from China. And whilst economic ties are a great vessel for avoiding conflict, they can also be a source of tension, as the present currency crisis demonstrates.
Still other experts argue that mankind has reached a zenith of sorts in evolution which eliminates the possibility of "great power" conflict. Intellectuals and members of hi society thought the same when Gutenberg press was invented, as did members of society when the radio became capable of dispersing large amounts of information to isolated parts of the globe.
This paper does not advocate for the inevitable clash of great powers, it is simply meant to demonstrate history never ends and never begins; the moment we forget a piece of history we are doomed to relive it.

resources:

http://www.londoninternational.ac.uk/current_students/programme_resources/lse/lse_pdf/foundation_units/econ_hist/echist_ch3.pdf

http://www.gatt.org/trastat_e.html

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